Study on the Impact of Monetary Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Investment

Against the backdrop of diverging global economic recovery momentum and overlapping geopolitical risks, monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) has increasingly become a significant factor influencing corporate investment behaviour. This study employs data from non-financial listed companies on China's A-share market between 2007 and 2024. It constructs an MPU indicator more suited to China's context through measurement methodology and reveals the differentiated impact of MPU from a multidimensional heterogeneity perspective. The research examines the effect of monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) on corporate investment, providing empirical evidence for monetary policy expectation management and micro-level corporate risk response. Findings indicate that rising MPU significantly suppresses corporate investment, a conclusion that remains robust after undergoing variable substitution, sample adjustment, and endogeneity treatment. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis reveals that MPU's negative impact on investment is more pronounced among private enterprises, firms with high financing constraints, and companies operating in regions with lower financial marketisation.