Projection of Iran\'s Expert Human Forces Supply through Stock-Flow Model (in Persian)

Expert human forces markets have some characteristics that exclude them from other markets. They are various, transparent and unstandardized. In these markets, employment is more or less continuous workers are self-supplying and their bargaining power is little. Although, it is expected that individuals maximize their desirability in relation to wages and leisure time, the supply-side reaction in these markets is little compared to the demand-side reaction. Prices role in the supply side is less than that of other organizational factors in these markets. This justifies the use of stock-flow approach for projecting the supply. According to the approach, expert human forces supply is composed of two factors, i.e., the "stock" of expert human forces at any time and the "flow" of new expert human forces. The results of projection by this method reveal that at the end of the Third Development Plan (2004), the total number of Iran's expert human supply would be over 2930.7 thousand persons. This number reaches over 4980.4 thousand persons at the end of the Fourth Development Plan (2009). Meanwhile, the amount of new supplies during the Third Plan (2000-2004) would be 1112.7 thousand persons, presuming that population participation rate for 20-29-years age group is 84 percent. It means that the annual increase is 222.5 thousand persons during the Third Plan and 362.6 thousand persons within the Fourth Plan. Presuming that the population participation rate for 20-29-years age group is 97 percent, the same number would be 256.9 thousand persons in the Third Plan and 418.8 persons in the Fourth Plan.