Evalution of Leading Ind ing Indicators in Irans Economy (in Persian)

Viewpoints related to busines cycles fluctutions and their use in economic anticipation process have drawn the attention of various intellectual spectrum and economic schools. This has, in turn, caused the formation of a modern scientific area known as future study. According to the major aims of this field of this field of knowledge, business cycles future changes and the variables affecting them are studied to offer a realistic interpretation of the general economic trend in future. This research paper tries to mark the variables of hybrid leading and coincidents indicators in Iran's economy according to NBER Method for the period 1967-2001 and calculate them according the method applied to OECD countries, considering international outstanding definitions and methods. Iran's economic characterstics has been considered with the aim of studying business cycles and leading variables in Iran's Economy. The paper uses construction sector value-added variables, gross domestic fixed capital formation, warehouse stocks, capital and intermediate goods imports, real foreign exechange rate, non- governmental sectors' debt to banking system, industry sector employment, gross domestic saving, oil price (in two lags), inflation rate, nondurable goods consumption costs, durable consumer goods total consumption, unpaid cheques and budget deficit in order to generate the hybrid indicators. Then, it tends to anticipating Iran's future economic situations on the basis of econometric models. According to the results of the model evaluation, the paper anticipates that the economic prosperity that has started since 1980 continues through 2002 and 2003.