Investigating Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination in Iran\'s Economy: TVP-Reaction Function (in Persian)

This study investigates whether monetary and fiscal policies are consistent in reaction to the demand pressure and inflationary conditions. To answer this question, the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies was examined for the period 1988:1-2021:4, based on Demid’s approach (2018) and using a model with time-varying parameters (TVP). Following the study of Kuttner (2016) in the framework of game theory, Nash equilibrium, scenarios for the interaction of these two policies were extracted in the policy matrix. The results confirm that two periods, from the first quarter of 1992 to the second quarter of 1992 (two seasons) and also from the second quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2011 (two seasons), were the only ones in which monetary and fiscal policymakers simultaneously and consistently tried to reduce the inflation gap. Also, in the first three seasons of 2006 and the second quarter of 2008 to the end of 2009 (7 seasons), the monetary and fiscal authorities reacted positively to the negative output gap simultaneously and had a counter-cyclical reaction to reduce the output gap in a coordinated manner. Based on these results and in the framework of the policy matrix, the Central Bank of Iran has been submissive to fiscal policies for most of the years. Therefore, it is suggested that to strengthen coordination between fiscal and monetary policymakers, establishment of some institutional arrangements and legal frameworks should be on the agenda, including the implementation of both fiscal rules and inflation targeting, and setting a legal framework for strengthening the central bank independence.