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Iran\'s Population Projection considering Socio-Economic Factors based on a Multidisciplinary Approach (in Persian)

Author

Listed:
  • Mahmoudi, Mohammad-Javad

    (Iran)

  • Kazemi-pour, Shahla

    (Iran)

  • Ahrari, Mehdi

    (Iran)

  • Nikoo-nesbati, Ali

    (Iran)

Abstract

Population growth is a phenomenon that may not be explained only by relying on economic factors. Thus, this article tries to explain population growth issue according to Inglehart-Welzel's Modernization and Cultural Change Theory besides economic factors. It also tries to take a multidisciplinary approach to project and model the strategic variable of population on the basis of socio-economic variables influencing it according to Inglehart's theory up to 2025 in the framework of three economic scenarios, i.e. continuing status quo, the effect of Subsidies Target-Orientation Law and the fulfillment of Iran 2025 Vision goals. The results show that population growth in each scenario follows a decreasing trend asserting Modernization and Cultural Change Theory on the embrace of post-materialistic values. Making the comprehensive population policies according to developmental and multidisciplinary perspectives is a must in Iran's strategic and long-run planning system in a way to project and analyze the future socio-economic and cultural situations.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahmoudi, Mohammad-Javad & Kazemi-pour, Shahla & Ahrari, Mehdi & Nikoo-nesbati, Ali, 2012. "Iran\'s Population Projection considering Socio-Economic Factors based on a Multidisciplinary Approach (in Persian)," The Journal of Planning and Budgeting (٠صلنامه برنامه ریزی Ùˆ بودجه), Institute for Management and Planning studies, vol. 17(2), pages 97-126, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:auv:jipbud:v:17:y:2012:i:2:p:97-126
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