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Prediction of Fatal Road Traffic Crashes in Iran Using the Box-Jenkins Time Series Model

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Listed:
  • Ayad Bahadori Monfared
  • Hamid Soori
  • Yadollah Mehrabi
  • Hossein Hatami
  • Ali Delpisheh

Abstract

Introduction: Frequency of traffic related mortalities is increasing worldwide. The present study aimed to predict deaths from road traffic accidents for the first time in Iran.Methods: All death statistics from traffic accidents in Iran between March 2004 and March 2011 were available for analysis. The Box-Jenkins time series model was used for trends purposes. Death from traffic accidents were predicted from March 2011 to March 2013 and then compared with the actual frequencies.Results: Overall, 21548 deaths (95% CI: 15426-27669) due to road traffic accidents were predicted for 2011 compared to 2010, with a negative growth of 7.32%. The corresponding frequency was 20404 deaths from road traffic accidents (95% CI: 9914-30893) for 2013 compared to 2011 with a negative growth of 5.31%. An accuracy rate of 93% was found for prediction of fatal traffic accidents compared to the formal reports by the government.Conclusions: The Box-Jenkins time series model is an acceptable method for prediction of road traffic accidents.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayad Bahadori Monfared & Hamid Soori & Yadollah Mehrabi & Hossein Hatami & Ali Delpisheh, 2013. "Prediction of Fatal Road Traffic Crashes in Iran Using the Box-Jenkins Time Series Model," Journal of Asian Scientific Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(4), pages 425-430.
    • Handle: RePEc:asi:joasrj:v:3:y:2013:i:4:p:425-430:id:3496
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