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Crime Surge and Institutional Weakness: are They Associated? Evidence from a Conflict Country

Author

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  • Ibrahim A. Onour

    (Professor of Financial Econometrics School of Management Studies University of Khartoum, Sudan)

Abstract

This paper investigates the degree of association between major four crimes in Sudan, including illegal drug trafficking, murder, theft, and prostitution, with indicators of institutional weakness that include surge in other four crimes: duty & customs, forgery, passport related, and firearms & ammunition crimes. These later four crimes has been considered indicators of institutional weakness because upswing in these crimes is a reflection of corruption or negligence, or incompetence of institutional performance in the country. The canonical correlation test result indicates there is a very high and significant association between the major four crimes and the indicators of institutional weakness. This finding implies institutional weakness can nurture crime surge in the country. Cluster analysis indicates the type of crimes in conflict states of Darfor region are featured in the rest of the country except in the capital state, Khartoum which represent a separate cluster on its own. Cluster analysis also indicate murder crime is connected with prostitution; and theft crime is associated with firearms & ammunition crimes; custom & duty crimes connected with passport -related and illegal drugs crimes. However, illegal drugs crime is connected with murder, theft, and prostitution crimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim A. Onour, 2017. "Crime Surge and Institutional Weakness: are They Associated? Evidence from a Conflict Country," International Journal of World Policy and Development Studies, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 3(1), pages 1-9, 01-2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:arp:ijwpds:2017:p:1-9
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    Keywords

    : Crimes; Multivariate analysis; Sudan.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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