Estimation of the Household Debt-to-Income Ratios in Municipalities of Russia's Sverdlovsk Oblast in 2021-2022 Based on the Cartographic Method

This article provides an assessment of the credit burden indicators of Russian households at the second level of administrative-territorial division (ATD) of the Russian Federation – at the level of municipalities. During the study, it was established that due to the lack of public statistics and a unified database on retail lending to citizens at the level below regional, it is not yet possible to conduct a correct analysis of this area of the credit market at the level of municipalities. Based on reports from three different credit bureaus (CBs), in the article we calculate one of the indicators of credit burden: the debt-to-income-ratio (DTI-Ratio) – which reflects how many income periods a household has to repay all its current debts before they mature. DTI-Ratio is calculated quarterly for the period 2021-2022 for the average household in each municipality of Russia's Sverdlovsk Oblast. A statistical study of DTI-Ratio dynamics was conducted for the eight quarters of 2021 and 2022. DTI-Ratio values at key periods were plotted on several maps to visualize the study results. No significant fluctuations in the dynamics of the DTI-Ratio indicator were found in any municipality of Sverdlovsk Oblast. On the contrary, according to data from each credit bureau and based on data on average per capita income from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), a decrease in DTI-Ratio was observed in most of Sverdlovsk Oblast's municipalities. An increase in DTI-Ratio values was observed only in two municipalities in the oblast. Key events in 2021-2022 have not significantly changed the dynamics of the DTI-Ratio. Additionally, a correlation analysis was performed of the relationship between quarterly and average annual DTI-Ratio values with data from DOM.RF on the rate of housing construction under shared construction agreement (SCA). A strong correlation between the data from DOM.RF and the data from reports from all three credit bureaus was found only in the Yekaterinburg urban district. At the same time, the DTI-Ratio values in this district as per the reports of the three credit bureaus remained in the same range (1-6 points) during the studied period. The development of primary housing construction and the growth of the households' credit portfolio in Yekaterinburg did not cause an increase in DTI-Ratio values during the studied period; the debt burden of households in Yekaterinburg remained at the same level.