Weather and Crop Management Impact on Crop Yield Variability

This research is primarily designed to examine crop yield variation due to change in weather pattern and crop management activities by exploring a comprehensive list of factors (e.g. environmental, economic etc.). Given that existing literature indicates significant effects when farmland value is regressed on weather variables, a natural question is to ask whether major agricultural crop yields responds to change in historical weather pattern. To answer this question, this study relies on a state level panel dataset including agricultural and high-resolution weather data covering the period 1997-2018. Using a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) approach, this study estimates how crop spatial distribution patterns have impacted crop yield variation in response to weather in United States Greater Midwest region. Key findings indicate that changes in crop management activities correspond closely to estimate of both crop price and weather effects. Additionally, corn yield response to weather change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Further, revenue of corn, soybeans, wheat and their respective lagged yields have positive and significant effect to respective crop yields. Finally, a major crop yield does vary across region due to variation of crop prices, precipitation and temperature. These findings have useful implications for agriculture sector on how historical weather trends have affected crop yield and distribution pattern.