Prediction of Climate Change Effects on Plantain Yield in Ondo State, Nigeria

This study investigated the effects of climate change on plantain (Musa spp) for three Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) in Ondo State. Climate projections of six selected general circulation models (GCMs) under climate scenarios-Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5) were applied for different periods; baseline (1975–2005); future periods 2035–2065 [2050s] and 2070–2100 [2080]). The results of regression analysis showed a positive relationship between precipitation and plantain yield, while maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) indicated no significant relationship with plantain yield at P˂ 0.01 in all the AEZs. The output of trend analysis indicated an increase in Tmax of 0.046oC/year for Ondo North Agro-Ecological Zone (ONAEZ), while Ondo South Agro-Ecological Zone (OSAEZ) has the lowest increment of 0.003oC/year. Tmin for Ondo Central Agro-Ecological Zone (OCAEZ) increased by 0.007oC/year and decreased with 0.004oC/year and 0.030oC/year for ONAEZ and OSAEZ. However, analysis of precipitation events in the study areas from 1975-2005 showed that OCAEZ received the highest increase of 7.47 mm/year and decreased by 13.48 mm/year and 2.84 mm/year for ONAEZ and OSAEZ respectively. Largest plantain yield reduction compared to the control-period for CCCMA model was -30.3% and -38.1% for the 2050s and 2080s whereas ICHEC model predicted an average lowest reduction of -7.5% and -12.5% for the short time and long periods in ONAEZ. In OSAEZ, plantain yield decreases varied from -6.3% to -8.4% for CNRM model, -6.1% to -6.7% (MPI) and -36.1% to -37.7% for CCCMA. In conclusion, overall climate change simulations in OCAEZ showed that projected climate may have relatively small negative effects on plantain yield compared to ONAEZ and OSAEZ respectively.