IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Endogeneidade/Exogeneidade dos Gastos Públicos e Expectativas num Modelo com Metas de Inação


  • Fernando Motta Correia

    (Universidade Federal do Paraná)

  • Jose Luis da Costa Oreiro

    (Universidade de Brasilia)


O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a validade no uso de políticas fiscais anticíclicas, na tentativa de identificar a propensão à estabilidade num modelo macrodinâmico incorporando um regime de metas inflacionárias como arcabouço operacional para o controle da inflação numa economia fechada. A ideia básica do artigo é verificar os efeitos da exogeneidade dos gastos do governo e da taxa de juros no curto prazo e por consequência sua endogeneidade no longo prazo. Duas hipóteses são consideradas no trabalho, a primeira supõe que os agentes são guiados por expectativas adaptativas e a segunda assume que essas expectativas são racionais. Os resultados da analise de estabilidade para os dois modelos macrodinamicos apontaram dois importantes corolários: (i) sob expectativas adaptativas a política monetária registra uma defasagem interna mais longa em relação à política fiscal; (ii) sob expectativas racionais as políticas fiscais e monetárias devem exibir uma defasagem externa menor nas suas respectivas variáveis secundárias em comparação às suas variáveis controles.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Motta Correia & Jose Luis da Costa Oreiro, 2008. "Endogeneidade/Exogeneidade dos Gastos Públicos e Expectativas num Modelo com Metas de Inação," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 9(2), pages 373-383.
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:9:y:2008:i:2:373-383

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2003. "Robust nonparametric estimation of efficiency and technical change in U.S. commercial banking," Working Papers 2003-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Gupta, Sanjeev & Verhoeven, Marijn, 2001. "The efficiency of government expenditure: experiences from Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 433-467, May.
    3. Beatrice Tovar & Sergio Jara-Diaz & Lourdes Trujillo, 2003. "Production and cost functions and their application to the port sector : a literature survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3123, The World Bank.
    4. Ro-Kyung Park & Prabir De, 2004. "An Alternative Approach to Efficiency Measurement of Seaports," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 6(1), pages 53-69, March.
    5. Luis R. Murillo-Zamorano, 2004. "Economic Efficiency and Frontier Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 33-77, February.
    6. Theo Notteboom & Chris Coeck & Julien Van Den Broeck, 2000. "Measuring and Explaining the Relative Efficiency of Container Terminals by Means of Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Models," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 2(2), pages 83-106, June.
    7. Cazals, Catherine & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Simar, Leopold, 2002. "Nonparametric frontier estimation: a robust approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 1-25, January.
    8. Estache, Antonio & Gonzalez, Marianela & Trujillo, Lourdes, 2001. "Technical efficiency gains from port reform : the potential for yardstick competition in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2637, The World Bank.
    9. Léopold Simar & Paul Wilson, 2000. "Statistical Inference in Nonparametric Frontier Models: The State of the Art," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 49-78, January.
    10. Dollar, David & Micco, Alejandro & Clark, Ximena, 2002. "Maritime transport costs and port efficiency," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2781, The World Bank.
    11. Cullinane Kevin & Song Dong-Wook & Ji Ping & Wang Teng-Fei, 2004. "An Application of DEA Windows Analysis to Container Port Production Efficiency," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-23, June.
    12. Charnes, A. & Cooper, W. W. & Rhodes, E., 1978. "Measuring the efficiency of decision making units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 2(6), pages 429-444, November.
    13. Cherchye, L. & Post, G.T., 2001. "Methodological Advances in Dea," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2001-53-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    14. Kevin Cullinane & Dong-Wook Song, 2003. "A stochastic frontier model of the productive efficiency of Korean container terminals," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 251-267.
    15. González, MarI´a Manuela & Trujillo, Lourdes, 2008. "Reforms and infrastructure efficiency in Spain's container ports," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 243-257, January.
    16. Andrew Worthington, 2001. "An Empirical Survey of Frontier Efficiency Measurement Techniques in Education," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 245-268.
    17. Productivity Commission, 2003. "International benchmarking of container stevedoring," General Economics and Teaching 0307006, EconWPA.
    18. William Greene, 2004. "Distinguishing between heterogeneity and inefficiency: stochastic frontier analysis of the World Health Organization's panel data on national health care systems," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(10), pages 959-980.
    19. Varian, Hal R., 1990. "Goodness-of-fit in optimizing models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1-2), pages 125-140.
    20. Adler, Nicole & Golany, Boaz, 2001. "Evaluation of deregulated airline networks using data envelopment analysis combined with principal component analysis with an application to Western Europe," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 260-273, July.
    21. Herrera, Santiago & Pang, Gaobo, 2005. "Efficiency of public spending in developing countries : an efficiency frontier approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3645, The World Bank.
    22. Rajiv D. Banker, 1993. "Maximum Likelihood, Consistency and Data Envelopment Analysis: A Statistical Foundation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(10), pages 1265-1273, October.
    23. Golany, Boaz & Thore, Sten, 1997. "The Economic and Social Performance of Nations: Efficiency and Returns to Scale," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 191-204, September.
    24. Paul Bishop & Steven Brand, 2003. "The efficiency of museums: a stochastic frontier production function approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(17), pages 1853-1858.
    25. Limao, Nuno & Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, and transport costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2257, The World Bank.
    26. Fare, Rolf & Grosskopf, Shawna, 1995. "Nonparametric tests of regularity, Farrell efficiency, and goodness-of-fit," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 415-425, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Dinâmica; Política Fiscal e Política Monetária;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:9:y:2008:i:2:373-383. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rodrigo Zadra Armond). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.