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Há Realmente uma Tendência a Deterioração dos Termos de Troca? Uma Análise dos Dados Brasileiros


  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal



The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in terms of trade is tested using modern time series econometric techniques. Using a multivariate cointegration test, the Presbish-Singer hypothesis for Brazil is rejected. The period covered by the sample is 1850-2001. The evidence shows that Brazilian terms of trade is stationary around a constant level. There is no evidence favourable to a secular trend of decline in Brazilian terms of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal, 2006. "Há Realmente uma Tendência a Deterioração dos Termos de Troca? Uma Análise dos Dados Brasileiros," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 7(2), pages 307-329.
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:7:y:2006:i:2:p:307-329

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Barry Eichengreen, 2006. "Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?," Chapters,in: Monetary Integration and Dollarization, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    3. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    5. André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: lessons and challenges," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 106-133 Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Fernando M. Gonçalves & Márcio Holland & Andrei D. Spacov, 2005. "Can Jurisdictional Uncertainty And Capital Controls Explain The High Level Of Real Interest Rates In Brazil? Evidence From Panel Data," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 028, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item


    Hipótese Prebisch-Singer; Cointegração; Termos de Troca; Raiz Unitária;

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General


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