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Há Realmente uma Tendência a Deterioração dos Termos de Troca? Uma Análise dos Dados Brasileiros


  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal



The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in terms of trade is tested using modern time series econometric techniques. Using a multivariate cointegration test, the Presbish-Singer hypothesis for Brazil is rejected. The period covered by the sample is 1850-2001. The evidence shows that Brazilian terms of trade is stationary around a constant level. There is no evidence favourable to a secular trend of decline in Brazilian terms of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal, 2006. "Há Realmente uma Tendência a Deterioração dos Termos de Troca? Uma Análise dos Dados Brasileiros," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 7(2), pages 307-329.
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:7:y:2006:i:2:p:307-329

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    Hipótese Prebisch-Singer; Cointegração; Termos de Troca; Raiz Unitária;

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General


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