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Produtividade, Demografia e Sustentabilidade da Previdência Social

  • Riovaldo Alves de Mesquita

    (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Brazil)

  • Giácomo Balbinotto Neto

    (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Brazil)

A sustentabilidade da Previdência Social no século XXI é analisada sob a ótica da dinâmica demográfica e do crescimento da produtividade. Argumenta-se que a sustentabilidade não depende de superávits contábeis, mas da manutenção da trajetória temporal do custo dentro da capacidade de financiamento do governo. Através de um modelo de simulações, são criadas 318 trajetórias de custo para cinco benefícios de prestação continuada, a partir de diferentes valores de parâmetros para as variáveis demográficas, a produtividade, a idade de elegibilidade e o reajuste de benefícios, que visam a comprovar a hipótese sustentada.

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File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/revista/vol14/vol14n1p389_427.pdf
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Article provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its journal Economia.

Volume (Year): 14 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1b ()
Pages: 389_427

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Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:14:y:2013:i:1b:389_427
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