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Dinâmica de Transição e Sustentabilidade da Política Fiscal no Rio Grande do Sul

Author

Listed:
  • Cristiano Aguiar de Oliveira

    (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande)

  • Liderau dos Santos Marques Júnior

    (Fundação de Economia e Estatística)

Abstract

Este artigo avalia a sustentabilidade da política fiscal do Rio Grande do Sul a partir de um modelo de correção de equilíbrio com mudanças Markovianas de regime. São estudadas as dinâmicas de curto e de longo prazo da política fiscal do Estado no período compreendido entre 1970 e 2007. A principal conclusão é de que a política fiscal do Estado é sustentável no longo prazo. Entretanto, este resultado está condicionado a uma alternância de regimes fiscais. O artigo conclui que são necessárias reformas institucionais com a finalidade de tornar as finanças públicas do Estado administrável no curto prazo.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristiano Aguiar de Oliveira & Liderau dos Santos Marques Júnior, 2011. "Dinâmica de Transição e Sustentabilidade da Política Fiscal no Rio Grande do Sul," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 12(3), pages 581-607.
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:12:y:2011:i:3:581_607
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Política Fiscal; Mudanças de Regime Markovianas; Modelo Vetor de Correção de Erros;

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing

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