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Convergência das Taxas de Crimes no Território Brasileiro


  • Marcelo Justus dos Santos

    (Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa)

  • Jonas Irineu dos Santos Filho

    (Universidade de São Paulo)


Experts have asserted that criminal activity is spreading throughout the entire Brazilian territory, and suspect that there is convergence in intra-regional crime rates over time. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the hypothesis of convergence in crime rates among different areas in Brazil. Using homicide rates as a proxy for criminality and controlling for spatial dependence in empirical regional analysis, this hypothesis was not rejected. Based on the rational choice economic model (Becker 1968), the observed convergence was explained. Finally, we concluded that, if the conditions present from the analyzed period are maintained, over time, the intra-regional difference in crime rates will be gradually reduced. This convergence will be followed by an increase in Brazilian.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Justus dos Santos & Jonas Irineu dos Santos Filho, 2011. "Convergência das Taxas de Crimes no Território Brasileiro," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 12(1), pages 131-147.
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:12:y:2011:i:1:131_147

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    More about this item


    Criminalidade; Economia do Crime; Convergência;

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law


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