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Taxa de Câmbio e a Balança Comercial Brasileira de Manufaturados: Evidências da J-Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Cláudia Maria Sonaglio

    (Universidade Estadual de Mato Grosso do Sul, Brasil)

  • Paulo Roberto Scalco

    (Universidade Federal de Goiás, Brasil)

  • Antonio Carvalho Campos

    (Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV), Brasil)

Abstract

Uma forma de investigação dos efeitos do curto e de longo prazo de uma depreciação cambial sobre o saldo da balança comercial é considerar dados agregados de comércio entre o país e o resto do mundo. Este estudo se propõe a analisar 21 setores da balança comercial de manufaturados brasileira no período de 1994/2007, a fim de evidenciar a existência do efeito de Curva J nestes setores. Para tal, utilizou-se a abordagem de co-integração multivariado de Johansen para estimar os efeitos da taxa de câmbio sobre a balança comercial. Os resultados apontam a existência de Curva J em apenas 2 dos 21 setores e, em 6 setores não se registram os efeitos de curto prazo, embora o saldo comercial responda positivamente no longo prazo a choques de depreciação cambial.

Suggested Citation

  • Cláudia Maria Sonaglio & Paulo Roberto Scalco & Antonio Carvalho Campos, 2010. "Taxa de Câmbio e a Balança Comercial Brasileira de Manufaturados: Evidências da J-Curve," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 11(3), pages 711-734.
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:11:y:2010:i:3:711_734
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balança Comercial de Manufaturados; Curva J; Taxa de Câmbio;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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