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Dinâmica Temporal da Criminalidade: Mais Evidências Sobre o Efeito Inércia" nas Taxas de Crimes Letais nos Estados Brasileiros


  • Marcelo Justus dos Santos

    (Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa)


Utilizando o estimador system GMM (Arellano e Bover 1995; Blundell e Bond 1998), neste artigo, testa-se a hipótese de que existe efeito inércia" nas taxas de crimes violentos letais e intencionais nos estados brasileiros. Estima-se que, aproximadamente, metade da criminalidade de um período se transfere para o próximo, alimentando as altas taxas de crimes letais no Brasil. Os resultados aprofundam a discussão sobre o efeito dissuasório dos gastos com segurança publica já que, mais uma vez, esse efeito não é observado. Felizmente, porém, aumentar a escolaridade parece ser uma das formas de diminuir a taxa de crimes letais nos estados brasileiros.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Justus dos Santos, 2009. "Dinâmica Temporal da Criminalidade: Mais Evidências Sobre o Efeito Inércia" nas Taxas de Crimes Letais nos Estados Brasileiros," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 10(1), pages 169-194.
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:10:y:2009:i:1:p169_194

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    Crime; Economia do Crime; GMM em Sistema;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law


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