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Potential Directions for Expanding Russia’s Foreign Trade: An Econometric Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Kirill Konstantinovich FURMANOV

    (Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Moscow, Russia)

  • Anastasia Anatol'evna DUBNOVITSKAYA

    (Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The paper examines the prospects for the development of Russia’s foreign trade with socalled “friendly” countries amid shifting economic conditions. Variations of the gravity model of international trade – both with and without a stochastic frontier analysis – are employed to assess Russia’s potential export and import volumes. The study identifies key directions for trade expansion, including Algeria, Egypt, Vietnam, Indonesia, and South Africa. Special attention is given to countries where actual trade volumes have already exceeded theoretical expectations, such as China, India, and Turkey. The findings may be useful in shaping Russia’s trade diversification strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirill Konstantinovich FURMANOV & Anastasia Anatol'evna DUBNOVITSKAYA, 2026. "Potential Directions for Expanding Russia’s Foreign Trade: An Econometric Analysis," Russian Foreign Economic Journal, Russian Foreign Trade Academy Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation, issue 01, pages 105-121, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:alq:rufejo:rfej_2026_01_105-121
    DOI: 10.64545/2072-8042-2026-1-105-121
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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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