Forecasting the effectiveness of the Russian economy on the basis of the scientific and technological balance

The article demonstrates the predictive capabilities of the previously proposed method of scientific and technological balance. In addition to linking the scientific sector with the real economy the equation of the scientific and technological balance allows for relatively simple forecast calculations. For this purpose, the article considers three forecast scenarios: "evolutionary", "resolute" and "reformatory". Each of them was considered in two variants – with a stimulating personnel policy aimed at stabilizing the number of employed in the scientific sector, and with an optimizing personnel policy assuming the primacy of efficiency due to the active release of inefficient scientists. As a point of reference for the forecast calculations the averaged science and technology indicators of the G7 countries were taken. These indicators include the ratio of «transmission» of scientific articles into patents, the productivity of science, the share of the scientific sector in the total employment, the share of government funding of science, the average price of one patent, etc. Forecast scenarios are based on the target of increasing the effectiveness of the Russian economy to the level of labor productivity of the G7 countries. The calculations have shown that the domestic economy already has positive trends in several areas. Provided they are slightly accelerated through stimulating policies, this will make it possible to successfully implement the catch-up strategy for technological development. According to the forecast scenarios, by 2022 Russia will be able not only to catch up the developed countries in the labor productivity, but even to be slightly ahead of them. However, the calculations show that this can be done only within the framework of the "reformatory" scenario with a stimulating personnel policy.