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Multi-population models to handle mortality crises in forecasting mortality: A case study from Hungary

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  • Csaba G. Tóth

    (Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Hungary)

Abstract

Central and Eastern European countries faced a serious mortality crisis in the second part of the 20th century, resulting in many years of decreasing life expectancy. In the last few decades, however, this was followed by a period in which mortality improved. This dichotomy of past trends makes it difficult to forecast mortality by way of stochastic models that incorporate these countries’ long-term historical data. The product–ratio model (Hyndman et al. 2013) is a model of the coherent type, which relies more closely on subpopulations with common socioeconomic backgrounds and perspectives to forecast mortality for all populations. This paper examines whether the product–ratio model is suitable for forecasting mortality in countries that have experienced serious mortality crises. To that end, we present a case study centered on Hungary, where the mortality crisis lasted three decades. The evaluation is founded on a comprehensive comparison of the product–ratio model and the classical Lee–Carter model. Our main finding is that in the Hungarian case, the product–ratio model is more reliably accurate than the classical Lee–Carter model. The superior performance of the product–ratio model may indicate that coherent models are better suited to handling mortality crises in forecasting mortality than are independent models.

Suggested Citation

  • Csaba G. Tóth, 2021. "Multi-population models to handle mortality crises in forecasting mortality: A case study from Hungary," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 43(2), pages 128-146, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:aka:soceco:v:43:y:2021:i:2:p:128-146
    DOI: 10.1556/204.2021.00007
    Note: Thank you to Levente Pakot for his valuable support. I am also grateful for comments I received at the workshops of the Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, as well as those of two anonymous reviewers. All errors are my own.
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    Cited by:

    1. Csaba TÓTH, 2021. "Age And Gender - Specific Excess Mortality During The Covid-19 Pandemic In Hungary In 2020," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 42-46.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    demography; mortality; life expectancy; multi-population model; mortality forecast; Central and Eastern Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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