The Role of Innovations in the Resilience of Russian Companies in Global Value Chains

Amid growing global uncertainty, Russian industrial companies face the need to adapt to external shocks that disrupt supply chains, production processes, and distribution channels. Innovation activity is a key factor enabling successful adaptation; however, its role during periods of crisis remains a subject of debate. This study is driven by insufficient sample-based research of the dynamics of resilience among Russian innovative companies integrated into global value chains (GVCs) that have experienced two consecutive crises of different nature. This study aims to empirically assess the impact of innovation financing on the resilience of Russian companies participating in GVCs during periods of external shocks. The main hypothesis of the study is that investments in innovation enhance firms’ adaptability, although their effect depends on the nature of the shock and the degree of GVC integration. The empirical basis of the study is built on quasi-panel data for Russian industrial enterprises from 2019 to 2022, which enables an analysis of the effects of two consecutive external shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and the sanctions pressure of 2022. The primary method employed is econometric analysis using an ordered probit model with controls for industry- and region-specific factors. The results indicate that companies investing in innovation demonstrate greater financial and organisational resilience. At the same time, during acute external shocks such as the coronavirus pandemic, the combination of GVC participation and innovation activity may lead to short-term negative effects due to a high dependence on external markets. However, this effect becomes insignificant over time, suggesting a strong capacity for organisational adaptation in a turbulent external environment. The study contributes theoretically by advancing the understanding of the relationship between innovation and firm resilience during crisis periods, taking into account the specific context of GVC participation. Practically, its findings can be applied when shaping corporate crisis management strategies and informing tools of industrial policy.