Analysis of Economic Development and Economic Interaction in ASEAN Countries: ARDL Model Approach

Regional economic integration within ASEAN aims to strengthen the economies of its member states, and this commitment has yielded positive results. Economic integration, particularly through tariff reduction, significantly impacts intra-regional exports, which serve as a key form of economic interaction among member states. Intra-export is viewed as the representation of economic integration and is projected to stimulate economic growth. This study examines the economic interaction indicators that influence economic development, hypothesizing that intra-exports have a significant effect on economic progress. To test this hypothesis, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed as the theoretical framework and analytical tool. The results confirm the hypothesis, demonstrating that intra-exports are a significant driver of economic development within the region. Forecasting of key economic indicators indicates an upward trend over the next decade, with average annual increases of approximately four percent. The approach proves to be highly effective for short-term forecasting. In summary, this study finds that economic interaction, as measured by intra-exports, positively contributes to economic development indicators such as GDP per capita, exports per capita, imports per capita, and population growth. The findings support neoclassical trade theory and build on previous research highlighting the critical role of intra-regional trade in fostering regional economic growth. The study’s implications serve as valuable recommendations for policymakers aiming to enhance intra-export activities.