Franchising as a tool to modernize small and medium–sized businesses in Uzbekistan: growth determinants and institutional constraints

The article explores whether franchising can be turned into a renewal tool for Uzbek small and medium sized businesses (SMEs). Now the economy is undergoing a double transformation: institutional and digital, and they are not always in step. Based on the synthesis of institutional theory and the concept of absorption capacity, the impact of technological transfer, institutional trust and regulatory pressure on the efficiency of franchise networks is analyzed. The empirical part relies on panel data and econometric modeling. Technology transfer and institutional trust have been found to have a positive impact on franchisee performance, while regulatory pressure has a chilling effect. The effect of technology has been shown to increase with a high level of institutional trust, while the administrative press, on the contrary, reduces returns. Three scenarios for the development of franchising until 2030 have been substantiated, reflecting alternative trajectories of institutional and technological development.