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An Empirical Bayes Approach To Modeling Drought

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  • Chamberlain, P.J.

Abstract

This paper illustrates an alternative approach to estimating the occurrence of drought. The empirical Bayes methodology was developed because of deficiencies in time-series and regression analysis with respect to prediction of drought. This manuscript is comprised of (a) a discussion of "classical" and Bayes estimators of probability density (or mass) functions, (b) a description of the model, and (c) a comparison of the performances of the empirical Bayes and two classical estimators in predicting the elapsed time until drought. The Bayes value (incorporating both a priori and data information) was found to be superior to the traditional estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Chamberlain, P.J., 1988. "An Empirical Bayes Approach To Modeling Drought," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(01), July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:wjagec:32150
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32150
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    Keywords

    Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

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