Modelizacion de primas para un seguro de ingresos en el freson de Huelva

Espana es el tercer productor y el primer exportador mundial de freson. Toda esta produccion esta mayoritariamente concentrada en una zona, convirtiendo a Huelva en la mas importante regon exportadora de freson del mundo. En base de las investigaciones realizadas, los instrumentos de gestion de riesgo vigentes para el sector no prestan un adecuado grado de satisfaccion para los agricultores que reclaman y reivindican un seguro que les proporcione una cobertura completa de los riesgos que soportan. El objectivo de la presente comunicacion es desarrollar un seguro de ingresos global que aglutine todos esos riesgos que soporta el freson, dando adecuada en la informacion suministrada por empresas que representan el 44 por ciento de la produccion provincial, replica el modelo de ingresos de cada una de ellas y a traves de simulacion Monte-Carlo determina el nivel de proma pura para diversas estrategias aseguradoras. Seria viable un cambio de metodologia pasando de un seguro de danos a un seguro de ingresos, donde las opciones mas factibles seria cobertura del 100 por ciento o franquincia relativa del 30 por ciento...Spain is the world's third largest producer and major exporter of strawberries. Production is primarily concentrated within a single zone, which has made Huelva the most important strawberry-exporting region in the world. Research projects show that risk-management instruments in this sector do not offer strawberry farmers an adequate degree of satisfaction, and they are demanding an insurance policy that will offer them full cover for the risks that they run. The objective of the study presented here was to develop a global income insurance product that gathers together all the risks borne by the strawberry sector, responding sufficiently to the accidents and other sources of loss that affect this industry. The insurance product, whose design is based on the information supplied by companies that are responsible for 44 percent of production in the province, copies the income model of each individual company, and by means of a Monte Carlo simulation determines the pure premium level appropriate for different insurance strategies. A viable option would to change the multiple-percil insurance to a revenue insurance, with 100 percent guarantee and relative deductible of 30 percent.