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Análisis cuantitativo de las relaciones entre macroeconomía y sector agrario en Túnez

Author

Listed:
  • Kaabia, Monia Ben
  • Chebbi, Houssem E.
  • Gil, Jose M.

Abstract

El proceso de globalización que la economía mundial está manifestando en los últimos años constituye un gran reto para Túnez, país que está inmerso en un gran proyecto de reformas económicas y estructurales. En este contexto, cualquier decisión en el ámbito de la política macroeconómica genera importantes consecuencias, tanto directas como indirectas, que afectan al bloque agroalimentario y a sus agentes. Sin embargo, hasta la fecha la mayoría de los estudios efectuados sobre el sector agroalimentario han ignorado estos efectos. Desde este punto de vista, este estudio es uno de los primeros trabajos que analiza el impacto de cambios en la política monetaria y cambiaria sobre las exportaciones y los precios percibidos en el sector agroalimentario. El enfoque metodológico utilizado para abordar este estudio se basa en el análisis multivariante de cointegración, lo que nos ha permitido diferenciar entre el largo y el corto plazo. Los principales resultados obtenidos indican que la relación existente entre las variables macroeconómicas y el sector agroalimentario es unidireccional. Aquéllas tienen un efecto en éste pero no al contrario. Los shocks en el tipo de cambio generan efectos más permanentes que los que tienen lugar en la política monetaria.....The ongoing globalisation process, which is taken place in the world economy, is a big challenge for Tunisia, a country which is suffering a complex process of structural economic reforms. In this situation any policy decision on macroeconomic variables generates important consequences, both direct and indirect, on the agrofood sector. However, most of the studies dealing with the agricultural sector have ignored such possible effects. This study is one of the first attempts to analyse the impact of changes in the monetary policy and the exchange rate on agricultural prices and exports. The methodology used is based on the multivariate cointegration approach which allows to differentiate between the short and the long-run behaviour. Results indicate that changes in macroeconomic variables have an effect on the agricultural sector but the reverse effect does not hold. Any shock in the exchange rate generates more permanent effects on agricultural prices and exports that those in the monetary variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaabia, Monia Ben & Chebbi, Houssem E. & Gil, Jose M., 2002. "Análisis cuantitativo de las relaciones entre macroeconomía y sector agrario en Túnez," Revista Espanola de Estudios Agrosociales y Pesqueros, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Rural y Marino (formerly Ministry of Agriculture), issue 195, pages 1-23.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:spreea:165644
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.165644
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