Agro-Industrial Complex and economic security of Ukraine: Strategic European integration vector

The Agro-Industrial Complex of Ukraine was a critical determinant of National Economic Security, a relationship profoundly tested, particulary during the full-scale russian invasion initiated in 2022. The purpose of the study was to quantify the impact of the Agro-Industrial Complex and other key economic sectors on Ukraine’s National Economic Security over the 2013-2022 period and drawn strategic lessons from the evolution of the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy. The results from Partial Least Squares Path Modeling showed the model explained 86.6% of the variance in economic security. The Agro-Industrial Complex emerged as the most significant positive driver, with a standardised path coefficient of 0.394. The industrial and financial sectors also contributed positively but to a lesser extent. The energy sector exerted a strong negative influence, acting as a primary channel for economic shocks, while investment demonstrated a negligible impact, indicating systemic barriers to capital deployment. Descriptive data revealed that despite a drop in average grain production from 75.5 million tonnes (2019-2021) to approximately 54 million tonnes in 2022, the Agro-Industrial Complex’s shared of total exports surged from an average of 40.23% to 53.0% in 2022 and 60.8% in 2023, highlighting its role as a macroeconomic stabiliser. State intervention to modernise the energy grid and dismantle barriers to capital was the most supported path to converting the Agro-Industrial Complex’s remarkable resilience into a lasting foundation for a secure and prosperous post-war economy. The findings provided an empirical foundation for Ukrainian policymakers to prioritise systemic reforms in the energy and investment sectors alongside agricultural development to build resilient National Economic Security