Scenario analysis of the degree of depreciation of cereals yield and milk yield in the context of Ukraine’s economic security

The purpose of this study was to model the dynamics of indicators of Ukraine’s industrial and food security against the background of strategies for increasing organic land and scenarios of hostilities until 2030. The methodological basis consisted of both time series models that considered exogenous variables and multifactor linear regression models. It was established that a decline in the degree of fixed asset depreciation in agriculture by 0.15 p.p., resulting from a 1 p.p. growth in the share of organic land, wasn’t pose a threat to Ukraine’s industrial security, but it couldn’t offset the destructive consequences of the russian-Ukrainian war. While setting a target of 10% organic area will brought cereal yields (64 c/ha) closer to the optimal state (45-55 c/ha) with a weighted average yield loss of 1.97 c/ha in 2030, corn yields, even with losses (2.60 c/ha), will remain in an unsatisfactory state, reaching 75 c/ha. Although the average annual milk yield will predict to accomplish a satisfactory state in 2028 (5,521.2 kg > 5,000 kg) under the baseline forecast, the yield losses (amounting to 119.89 kg) associated with a more than 10% organic livestock will prevent this achievement by 2030. Therefore, accelerated development of organic dairy production couldn’t be recommended under any of the scenarios. However, achieving a 3% share of organic cows wasn’t jeopardise industrial security (except for the pessimistic war until 2030). Given the critical condition of milk self-sufficiency (<80% starting from 2025), which was the consequence of a steady reduction in the number of cows, organic dairy production exacerbated the problem of food insecurity. The study results can be used by Ukraine’s executive authorities in developing substantiated strategies for the transition to organic agriculture that will meet the goals of economic security