Prospects for the transformation of grain exports into livestock development as a scenario for the economic growth of the Ukrainian agricultural sector in the postwar period

The purpose of this study was to substantiate the scenario of transformation of grain exports into the development of beef cattle and pig breeding as high value-added products with the corresponding definition of an indicative positive impact on the Ukrainian economy. The study employed the following methods: comparative analysis, statistical, tabular, calculation and design, abstract-logical, as well as trend extrapolation tools. The study found a trend of increasing concentration of raw materials in Ukraine’s agricultural exports – 85%. The share of grain in total exports was almost 25%. Further growth in grain exports was becoming an issue for the internal and external markets. Therewith, export earnings from meat sales continues to be insignificant at 3-4%, while beef and pork production was steadily declining. The factual consumption of beef and veal meat by the population was almost 6 times lower than the rational norm, and pork – 1.5 times. It was found that the high concentration of raw materials in Ukrainian agricultural exports leads to significant annual losses of export earnings, potential jobs, and a decrease in the country’s GDP. The forecast benchmarks for the parameters are to increase beef production to 1 million tonnes and pork production to 2 million tonnes per year. The total projected demand for grain to produce the specified volumes of beef and pork was 12.94 million tonnes per year (wheat – 5.51 million tonnes, maize – 5.59 million tonnes, barley – 1.84 million tonnes). The calculations proved that the use of certain volumes of wheat, maize, and barley for fattening animals for meat production rather than export would increase Ukraine’s export earnings by 12.6% (or by USD 1.23 billion per year). The study found that Ukraine’s GDP could grow by UAH 525.6 billion or USD 12.5 billion. The practical findings of this study enable an objective assessment of the scenario of transformation of the grain market structure with the corresponding determination of the forecast parameters for increasing export earnings and added value for the Ukrainian economy, which may be useful for government agencies in predicting the areas of post-war recovery of the country’s agricultural sector