Prospects for meeting the needs of the most common types of fruit in Ukraine

During the war, there is a need to provide all market participants with fruit products mainly of Ukrainian production and reduce import dependence. To do this, it is important to establish indicators of the actual level of consumption, general and internal needs in the future, and opportunities for their provision. The purpose of the study was to establish and evaluate the actual fruit consumption fund in Ukraine, considering the food imbalance during the war, and prospective consumption indicators, needs, and possible sources of their coverage. A detailed analysis of the market environment, its changes and mutual influence was based on the balance sheet method, which provided a comprehensive study of the market situation and allowed modelling the economic situation for the future. Correlation and regression analysis techniques were used to determine the prospective parameters of the Ukrainian market. It has been established that in Ukraine the development of fruit supply is carried out in an unorganised manner, given the concentration of their main production in households – by 80%. This leads to differentiation in ensuring consumer demand of the population in the context of regions of the country, by product range and variety, and by place of residence. The main share of fruit production (mainly pome fruits – 90%) is concentrated in the Vinnytsia Oblast (13%). Due to the war, the gross harvest decreased most in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipro oblasts, which makes it necessary to optimise interregional logistics. The consumption fund is characterised by a dynamic decline, which resulted in 80.4% of the population’s demand for fresh and processed fruit being met. The market capacity covers demand by only 40%, which indicates a high level of natural production and self-sufficiency of the population. In the long term, a slight increase in Ukrainian production, supplies of objectively necessary imports (citrus fruits, bananas), and meeting the domestic needs of the population by 86.8% is expected in 2030. In the future, considering the need to expand industrial intensive horticulture on an innovative basis, for optimal provision of general needs for fruits, state financial support for this type of activity is necessary. The study results should be used in the development of a long-term food supply programme for the short term in the context of optimal provision of fresh and processed fruit products to the population and all market operators