Foreign trade in Ukraine’s agri-food products in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic spread

The research results obtained during the implementation of the project “Assessment of the impact of quarantine measures related to COVID-19 on the agricultural sector and food security of the state and development of an algorithm for minimising the adverse consequences” No. 2020.01/0313 of the competition “Science for Human and Society Security” at the expense of grant support from the National Research Foundation of Ukraine. The purpose of the research – to analyse the impact of restrictive quarantine measures in 2020-2021 related to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic on foreign trade activities in the agricultural sector of Ukraine. In generalising the theoretical and methodological aspects of the research, the methods of the abstract and logical method, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, analogy and comparison were used. To diagnose the dynamics of exports and imports of agro-food products, economic and statistical methods (comparative analysis, average and relative values, statistical groupings, trend analysis, graphical method, index, coefficient analysis, etc.) Several techniques of abstract and logical tools allowed the development of intermediate conclusions and proposals. It is established that the domestic agrarian sector, considering its current raw material and export orientation, depends on the foreign economic situation of market demand, which was affected by restrictions related to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the introduction of quarantine measures during the global level, namely: restrictions on trade transactions between states, restrictive measures on the movement of goods, closure of agro-food markets, etc. It is confirmed that since the beginning of the spread of COVID-19, the conditions for trade in agri-food products in Ukraine have deteriorated. It was determined that the volume of exports of agro-food products in 2020 compared to 2019 remained practically unchanged – an increase of 0.2%. Therewith, imports of such products for the same period increased by 13.3%. The excess of import growth over exports resulted in a significant deterioration in the foreign trade balance of agri-food products – a decrease of 4.4%, which indicates the adverse impact of the spread of the pandemic and the introduction of restrictive quarantine measures on foreign trade in domestic agri-food products. The most unfavourable trends were inherent in foreign trade in meat and dairy products. Scientific and methodological approaches to assessing the impact of quarantine restrictions related to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic on foreign trade in agri-food products in Ukraine were further developed. The results of the impact of restrictive quarantine measures on the state of foreign trade in agri-food products in 2020-2021 can be considered in the development of an efficient targeted national policy designed to increase the competitiveness of the agricultural sector, ensure Ukraine’s stable position in the global agri-food market, and the socio-economic development of the country in a pandemic