Forecasting trends and investments for the dairy industry and ensuring rational consumption of milk and dairy products by the population

The purpose of the article is to uncover statistically significant trends and dependencies of the dairy industry that can continue in the future, and determine the directions of investments and volumes of investment resources for milk and dairy products that will ensure a rational rate of its consumption per capita. Research methods. During the research process were used the following scientific methods: methods of analysis and synthesis (for determining indicators of dynamics and prospects of the dairy industry development in context of ensuring a rational rate of internal consumption of milk and dairy products in terms of milk per capita; correlations and regressions (for analytical alignment of actual data, their replacement by the theoretical equations of trend with the highest coefficients of approximation, as well as the definition of predictive indicators of the dairy industry development); project analysis (for establishing scenarios of the dairy industry development with justification of their investment support). Research results. Analysis of the dynamics of the dairy industry showed a decrease in the livestock and cow productivity in all categories of farms, an increase in milk sales to processors by agricultural enterprises and a decrease in households. In the future, a decline rate in the cow livestock will outpace productivity growth, which will cause a decrease in the milk production in all categories of farms and sales to processing plants. The population in the country was estimated and a ratio of milk consumption per capita to the rational rate of consumption was established. Scenarios for the dairy industry development and volume of investments were worked out to ensure a rational rate of consumption of milk and dairy products per capita. Elements of scientific novelty. Regularities on trends of the dynamic series of indicators of the dairy industry development were mathematically proved. Analytical functions and estimation of approximation coefficients of adequacy of equations made a forecast on production and consumption of milk and dairy products. The level of milk production was established to ensure a rational rate of consumption of milk and dairy products per capita. Scenarios for the dairy industry development were worked out at an expense of different categories of farms and a certain amount of investments. Practical significance. The researched tendencies and predictive indicators of the dairy industry development might serve as a guideline for making managerial decisions on directions for increasing a level of milk production and processing in order to ensure a rational rate of consumption of milk and dairy products by the country’s population. Tabl.: 4. Figs.: 8. Refs.: 18.