Analysis and modelling of energy potential of plant residues of the domestic agrarian sector

The purpose of the article is to justify an objective assessment of biomass solids potential of the agricultural origin available in Ukraine that can be used for energy purposes. The main task is to increase the accuracy of the results of energy resources assessments of plant by-products as well as generalization of the domestic agricultural sector possibilities for acting as a supplier of solid-fuel materials. Research methods. The study of problems of bioenergetic potential assessment in the article was carried out in the following order: firstly, a potential was assessed based upon 2017 year’s observation data; secondly, an energetic potential was assessed based upon linear and nonlinear optimization model; and finally, predicted values of a bioenergetic potential were carried out under conditions of the current pace of development of agricultural business by 2035. Research results. Based upon the proposed techniques the assessment was conducted on residues of agricultural production as of 2017. Solving of optimization tasks enabled us to make comparison of the real structure of agricultural production and to justify the optimal structure of the cultivated areas under conditions of agricultural business profit maximization with due allowance for both main and additional energy products. Elements of scientific novelty. The prospects of bioenergetics development were analysed, taking into account possible changes in the balance of traditional and innovative branches of Ukrainian energy. Practical significance. The article represents results of empiric analysis of the Ukrainian sector bioenergetic potential formation, which showed that even with respect to losses during the energy generation, the agricultural production energetic potential would be enough to replace nuclear power engineering; however, it requires investments worth approximately USD 70 billion, and this is unrealistic scenario. There is a high likelihood that the domestic bioenergetics will take a slower pace of development to satisfy its own energy demands. Tabl.: 5. Figs.: 1. Refs.: 25