Achieving an equilibrium on the potential Ukrainian land market in terms of macroeconomic instability

The purpose of the article is to assess parameters of the potential agricultural land market based on available information on the age structure of land owners, the profitability level of all agrarian business forms, and the limitations that may be adopted by legislative authorities. Research methods. The research process was based on use of statistical information on the efficiency status of various forms of agrarian business based on comparison of distribution characteristics of efficiency (mod, median, mathematical expectation, variance, coefficient of variation) and observations on the age structure of villagers. Research results. There was estimated an equilibrium price of 1 hectare of agricultural land considering admission to the market of only active participants of agrarian business. In this case, from 14 to 16 million hectares will be sold in a price level from EUR 1300 to 1800 per hectare. At the disposal of land plot owners will remain from 12 to 14 million hectares. At the same time, buyers’ gain will be from EUR 32 to 39 billion, while the estimated sellers’ winning will be from EUR 14 to 16 billion. Elements of scientific novelty. Scientific novelty of the research lies in reasonable assumption on a risk ratio to tenants and land owners and proposal to divide them considering their behaviour patterns for altruistic and selfish. Contrary to the current opinion on an excessive degree of risk of agrarian business, it was justified that, based on the statistical data, risks for investing in agrarian business are less than the risks of banking system deposits. Practical significance. It was shown that in demand formation at expense of the existing agrarian business at disposal of land owners will remain from 12 to 14 million hectares. The presented algorithm allows to make assessments in terms of changes in the market introduction restrictions (regional restriction of supply or exclusion of demand constraints, etc.). Tabl.: 3. Figs.: 4. Refs.: 24.