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Trends and prospects for development of the world agricultural markets as reference points for strengthening of Ukrainian positions

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  • Patyka, Nataliia

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to assess trends and identify prospects of the global agricultural markets development in order to form a system of benchmarks for strengthening of Ukraine’s positions in the global export market. Research methods. The systemic approach and economic and statistical methods (graphic method, comparison method, average values, etc.) have been used to diagnose development trends of the global agricultural market. The correlation-regression analysis has been used to analyse dependencies of trends formation and prospects forecasting of the world trade. The cluster analysis and the dispersion method have been used to structure and distribute individual groups of exporting countries, differing by volumes and shares of agricultural products supply, business conditions. Research results. In the article, according to the analysis results of the world commodity market dynamics development for the period between 1995 and 2017, it has been concluded that there is a tendency for its active growth. In the long term, it is reasonable to expect a strengthening of positive trend that by 2025 can provide total world trade at level of at least 23.8 trillion dollars USA, the expected share of crop products will reach the level of 5.25% and will be 1240.0 billion dollars, and animal products – 3,31% or 759.2 billion dollars USA. There is also a tendency towards concentration of agricultural products the world trade by individual groups of countries: more than 51% of the total volume of products are delivered to the world markets between only ten countries, and almost 25% - between thirteen relatively less-powerful exporters. Ukraine occupies only 1.06% of agricultural products of the world market, including 1.85% of crop products and 0.32% of animal products, which does not correspond to the domestic agriculture potential. Elements of scientific novelty. As elements of novelty, trends and prospects for development of world agricultural markets have been assessed and identified. This creates an opportunity to form landmark system in order to strengthen Ukraine's position on the world export market. Practical significance. Identifying trends and assessing prospects for development of world agricultural markets will enable to work out and implement an effective strategy to strengthen domestic agriculture competitiveness. The aforementioned strategy is oriented towards ensuring closed cycles of growing and processing agricultural raw materials and products, introduction of advanced innovative technologies for the crop cultivation and livestock breeding, ensuring advanced development of livestock industries and eliminating export imbalance in the structure of crop and animal products. Tabl.: 3. Figs.: 3. Refs.: 12.

Suggested Citation

  • Patyka, Nataliia, 2019. "Trends and prospects for development of the world agricultural markets as reference points for strengthening of Ukrainian positions," Ekonomika, Journal for Economic Theory and Practice and Social Issues, Society of Economists Ekonomika, Nis, Serbia, vol. 26(1).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:sereko:411626
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