Modelling of liquid biofuels market in Ukraine

The purpose of the article is to present main modelling results of projections of the liquid biofuels market in Ukraine by 2030 using the AGMEMOD model with introduction of state aid in form of direct support and tax preferences for liquid biofuels producers to meet needs of the domestic market in biofuels and to achieve the indicative target of 10% consumption biofuels in the total consumption of motor fuels by 2020. Research methods. In the article have been used such general scientific methods: dialectical for analysis of scientific works; abstract and logical approach for summarizing of the research results and formulating conclusions; empirical for evaluating current state and development of the research object; method of factor analysis; economic modelling for introduction of econometric dynamic model of partial equilibrium named AGMEMOD. Research results. The research is based on an assumption that, in presence of relevant framework conditions for achievement of the National Indicative Target for Biofuels in transport, Ukraine's possibilities for meeting the targets for consumption of liquid biofuels by the transport sector have been considered. Situation on liquid biofuels production in Ukraine has been analyzed, and have been identified obstacles for achievement of the indicative target of biofuels consumption and realistic implementation of the international obligations of Ukraine with regard to motor biofuels, as well as measures to be taken to achieve the abovementioned obligations. The AGMEMOD model was used to quantify implementation of the objectives above. Elements of scientific novelty. The scientific novelty of the article lies in modelling projections of the liquid biofuels market in Ukraine by 2030 using the AGMEMOD model with introduction of support for biofuels producers in form of direct subsidies and tax preferences, realization of which will ensure rapid market development, primarily due to increase of biofuels production and its widespread use in Ukraine. Practical significance. For the first time, modelling of the liquid biofuels market in Ukraine with the AGMEMOD model up to 2030 has been conducted and measures have been taken to achieve the indicative target of 10% of biofuels use in the total fuel consumption and to restore production and its further development. Tabl.: 3. Refs.: 24