The Choice of Methods Economic Forecasts- Problems and Prospects

Economic forecasting is characterized by extreme complexity and uncertainty about the final outcome. Sudden changes in the business environment, can lead to significant if not radical deviation of actual results from those projected. In addition, the conventional prediction approaches are focused mainly on developing and testing statistical techniques. In practice, however, human reasoning and judgment, have the primary role. Even when using a statistical method, the results are often adjusted according to the assessment of experts. In this paper we present a comprehensive overview of the methods of economic forecasts and an overview of its key features, the current state of theory and practice, the problem of the prediction methods as well as guidelines for further development of economic forecasting.