Unidades Representativas De Producción Bovina Y Porcina. Panorama Económico 2009-2014. Estado De Guanajuato

The main goal of this analysis is to evaluate the economic viability of Representative beef and hog Farms (URP) in the Mexican State of Guanajuato, in order to support a differentiated agricultural policy enhancing process and to boost the development of the livestock sector in this Mexican state. Ten URP were located in different regions within the state and modeled under the 2009 settings, overall, under actual representative technologies and productive systems. A panel farm process was applied to obtain the information required to the financial analysis for each URP. With the information obtained from the panel discussion, the historical risk (yields) reported by farmers, the projection prices calculated by FAPRI/SAGARPA/UACh 2010 and FAPRI 2011, and under the current support programs, different scenarios for economic viability were modeled. Economic key variables were chosen for the financial analysis (2009) such as production cost and net income. For the economic analysis (2010-2014) the variables were: cash net income, ending cash reserves, nominal net worth, real net worth, economic viability, probability of negative ending cash reserves and probability of real net worth loosing. The financial and economic variables were estimated through the econometric program MexSim©. The results for the basis year analysis (2009) showed that only four URP had positive net income. Most of beef livestock URP frequently had profitability problems. Hog URP rarely had this kind of problem. Transfers are not a key determinant of profitability. In the medium run (2010-2014), only seven URP are economically viable, most of them are hog farms. Three URP need governmental support to continue working. These results might be useful to design specific policies and tools for each kind of producer.