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A Influência do Preço dos Hortifrutícolas no IPCA: uma análise por meio da curva de Phillips

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  • Carrara, Aniela Fagundes
  • Barros, Geraldo Sant’Ana de Camargo

Abstract

Supply shocks have frequently been related to the behavior of inflation. Those shocks are in general measured by changes in commodity prices (minerals, oil, agricultural commodities, etc.). The objective of this paper is to examine the influence of supply shocks caused by changes in prices of horticultural products (perishable with short cycles) exert in the Brazilian inflation. Although not quite studied academically, this process has popularly been associated with important variations on the IPCA index. To deal with this process, a Phillips curve, following New Keynesians principles, based on the semi structural model of small size by the Brazilian Central Bank and the estimation method used was Auto-regression with Vector Error Correction (VEC) in its structural version. The results show that there is evidence that the prices of horticultural products may have a considerable participation in the IPCA and inflation expectations variations and their shocks produce effects that persist for several months in the trajectory of these two variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Carrara, Aniela Fagundes & Barros, Geraldo Sant’Ana de Camargo, 2016. "A Influência do Preço dos Hortifrutícolas no IPCA: uma análise por meio da curva de Phillips," Brazilian Journal of Rural Economy and Sociology (Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural-RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 54(4), pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:rdecag:253898
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.253898
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    Keywords

    Agribusiness;

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