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Perspektywy rozwoju polskiego handlu zagranicznego produktami rolno-spożywczymi

Author

Listed:
  • Poczta, Walenty
  • Pawlak, Karolina

Abstract

Some possible scenarios of Polish agri-food trade development are presented in the paper. Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), a computable general equilibrium model, was used to make some trade forecasts. The analysis showed that escalation of agricultural trade liberalization can result in a decrease of Polish exports as well as in imports growth and finally bring a deterioration in the positive agri-food trade balance. / Synopsis. W opracowaniu przedstawiono możliwe scenariusze rozwoju wymiany handlowej w sektorze rolno-spożywczym do roku 2015. W badaniach wykorzystano matematyczny model równowagi ogólnej Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). Rezultaty analizy dowiodły, że nasilenie tendencji liberalizacyjnych w światowym handlu rolnym może spowodować obniżenie wartości eksportu i wzrost wartości importu żywności i surowców rolniczych z/do Polski, a w konsekwencji pogorszenie dodatniego wyniku bilansu handlowego.

Suggested Citation

  • Poczta, Walenty & Pawlak, Karolina, 2007. "Perspektywy rozwoju polskiego handlu zagranicznego produktami rolno-spożywczymi," Problems of World Agriculture / Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, vol. 2(17), pages 1-8, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:polpwa:198927
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.198927
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