Impacts of Fisheries Management and Policy Scenarios in Sarangani and Sulu-Sulawesi Seas on Philippine Tuna Industry: Simulations from the AsiaFish Model

This paper explores the likely future impacts on the Philippine tuna industry of three possible fisheries management scenarios using a multi-market model known as AsiaFish. Simulation results showed that a scenario of restricted access to High Seas Pocket 1 adversely affects fishers and consumers as well as export revenues due to less tuna produced and higher tuna prices. In the scenario of stricter regulations in EU and US markets, tuna producers are affected negatively but these impacts are weakened by higher consumption of tuna. The combined effect from the two scenarios results in higher consumer prices, and lower imports and domestic consumption. In all three scenarios, over -all fish output is expected to fall. These results highlight the major consequences of noncompliance with imminent regional and global policies and regulations and provide useful information that can guide crafting of pre-emptive local strategies to address these foreseen challenges in the future.