Tier-2 Sugar Imports Under IEEPA & Section 122 and Outlook with New Section 301 Tariffs

The July 2026 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor examines recent developments in U.S. Tier-2 sugar imports and assesses how shifting tariff policies have affected import volumes and sourcing. The report reviews the declining real value of the fixed Tier-2 duty, the widening gap between U.S. and world sugar prices, and recent changes under the IEEPA, Section 122, and Section 301 tariffs. Tier-2 imports reached approximately 1.2 million short tons, raw value, in fiscal year 2024, contributing to higher domestic stocks and downward pressure on U.S. sugar prices and producer revenue. The report finds that while the 50 percent IEEPA tariff was in effect, Brazilian over-quota raw and refined sugar shipments fell from 370,188 metric tons during the same months a year earlier to 2,354 metric tons. Other suppliers partially replaced the lost Brazilian volume, demonstrating that the tariffs reduced overall Tier-2 imports but did not close the import channel. The report also considers the expiration of the IEEPA tariffs and temporary Section 122 surcharge and the uneven tariff structure created by new Section 301 actions. It concludes that because the Tier-2 duty remains fixed and the U.S. and world price spread continues to support profitable imports from lower-tariff suppliers, over-quota import pressure is likely to persist, with sourcing shifting among countries in response to tariff differences.