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Assessing the 2020 U.S.-China Phase One Agreement: Lessons for 2026 Ag Commitments

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  • Arita, Shawn
  • Gale, Fred
  • Kim, Jiyeon
  • Steinbach, Sandro

Abstract

The June 2026 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor assesses the 2020-2021 U.S.-China Phase One agreement to draw lessons for renewed 2026-2028 agricultural purchase commitments. The report reviews China's agricultural purchase targets, tariff waiver system, sanitary and phytosanitary commitments, and commodity-level trade outcomes. U.S. agricultural exports to China rebounded from the 2018-2019 trade-war trough to $26.4 billion in 2020 and $32.8 billion in 2021, with China reaching roughly 80 percent of the two-year agricultural purchase target and implementing most deadline-based agricultural commitments. The report finds that the most durable gains came from market-access reforms in beef, poultry, and tree nuts, while gains in corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton were larger but less durable and more dependent on tariff waivers, state-directed buying, Chinese demand conditions, and competitor supply. It also documents renewed administrative frictions, including beef plant-registration lapses and rising customs rejections of U.S. food shipments. An econometric assessment estimates a significant but transitory China market-access gain, peaking in 2022 and fading by 2024. The report concludes that future commitments require sustained tariff relief, predictable SPS treatment, and credible enforcement to generate durable export gains.

Suggested Citation

  • Arita, Shawn & Gale, Fred & Kim, Jiyeon & Steinbach, Sandro, 2026. "Assessing the 2020 U.S.-China Phase One Agreement: Lessons for 2026 Ag Commitments," NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor, North Dakota State University, vol. 2026(06), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ndsutm:404163
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404163
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