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A One-Year Retrospective Assessment of China’s 2025/26 Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports

Author

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  • Arita, Shawn
  • Steinbach, Sandro
  • Zhuang, Xiting

Abstract

The May 2026 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor provides a one-year retrospective assessment of China’s 2025/26 retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports. Using a structural gravity model, the report estimates that China’s Fentanyl and Reciprocal tariff layers reduced U.S. agricultural exports to China by $14.9 billion on an annualized basis from March 2025 through February 2026. The model isolates the tariff effect from other factors affecting trade flows, including global commodity trends, exporter and importer shocks, seasonality, and monthly aggregate shocks. Estimated losses are broad-based across commodities, with soybeans accounting for about $6.8 billion, followed by beef, cotton, tree nuts, coarse grains, pork, corn, poultry, hides and skins, dairy, and hay. The report finds that the 2025/26 retaliation episode exceeded the 2018/19 episode by roughly 43 percent in annualized dollar terms. It also allocates exposure across states, showing the largest estimated impacts in Iowa, California, Illinois, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Missouri, Indiana, South Dakota, Ohio, Arkansas, and North Dakota. The report concludes by discussing the May 2026 U.S.–China framework, including renewed market-access commitments and announced purchase targets that could substantially rebuild bilateral agricultural trade if fully implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Arita, Shawn & Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2026. "A One-Year Retrospective Assessment of China’s 2025/26 Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports," NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor, North Dakota State University, vol. 2026(05), May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ndsutm:401247
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.401247
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