IEEPA Tariff Escalation: What It Means for U.S. Food and Ag-Input Imports

The August 2025 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor analyzes the impact of the IEEPA tariffs on U.S. agri-food imports and farm inputs, alongside the latest export data. The trade-weighted effective tariff on agri-food imports rises from 4% MFN to 15%, though USMCA carve-outs and an EU deal blunt the aggregate shock; non-exempt suppliers such as Brazil, India, Switzerland, and China face steep rates (30–50%) that especially hit coffee, bottled water, and packaged foods. The effective tariff on agricultural inputs jumps from 1% to 12%, with pesticides near 25% and tractors/parts 13–16%, while fertilizer impacts remain muted due to Canadian exemptions. China extends its Section 301 exclusion window (applications through Oct 30; approvals through Dec 13) amid a 90-day tariff truce, yet U.S. exports to China are still down 53% year-to-date. Overall, June export value rose 3% year-over-year but is 2% year-to-date, with corn and ethanol remaining firm while soybeans, beef, and poultry sit at multi-year lows; underscoring higher input costs, uneven import exposure, and a fragile outlook for U.S. agricultural producers and exporters.