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Identifying the Sources of Declining in Chemical Fertilizer Consumption and Forecasting its Demands in Korea

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  • Kwon, Ohsang

Abstract

The purpose of this study is identifying the sources of declining in chemical fertilizer consumption in Korea. Furthermore, this study aims at providing forecasts of fertilizer demands incorporating the impacts of those sources. The study estimates a demand function of fertilizer, and investigates the impacts of reducing fertilizer subsidy on fertilizer demand. The impacts of the policy change on farming cost are estimated by an input-output analysis. The results are combined with those of a time-series estimation of per acre fertilizer consumption and total acreage in order to derive a complete forecast of fertilizer demand in 2013. The paper shows that fertilizer consumption will decline substantially in 10 years, and fertilizers will be over-supplied unless an effective structural adjustment is performed by the industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Kwon, Ohsang, 2005. "Identifying the Sources of Declining in Chemical Fertilizer Consumption and Forecasting its Demands in Korea," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 28(1), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jordng:288256
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.288256
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    Cited by:

    1. Choi, Jiseon & Jodlowski, Margaret C., 2022. "Tenure Status and Land Investment in South Korea," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322476, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis;

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