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WASDE Surprises and Futures Prices: What Moves Markets?

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  • Aitkulova, Indira
  • Balsamo, Emily
  • Seamon, Fred

Abstract

We examine corn and soybean futures price movements in the periods surrounding the release of the monthly World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) by the United States Department of Agriculture. Using polling estimations to calculate a degree of “surprise” for each WASDE release, we found statistically significant relationships between U.S. corn and soybean ending stock data and relevant corn and soybean futures intraday price movements post-release, with the nature of correlations changing as time from the release passed. Additionally, directionally correct drift prior to release suggests that we also observed informed trading and/or superior internal research.

Suggested Citation

  • Aitkulova, Indira & Balsamo, Emily & Seamon, Fred, 2026. "WASDE Surprises and Futures Prices: What Moves Markets?," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2026, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jasfmr:410270
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.410270
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