Analysis of orange cultivation in the State of São Paulo from 2001 to 2015

Over the years, Brazil has consolidated its position as the world's largest producer of oranges and the largest producer and exporter of concentrated orange juice, with the State of São Paulo accounting for 73% of national production. The performance of citrus farming is subject to variations, making it essential to understand the current context of orange production and the main factors affecting its cultivation. Therefore, the objective of this study was to analyze the evolution of the area, production, and productivity of oranges in the State of São Paulo, which holds the largest share of Brazilian production, and the factors that impacted its cultivation over the last 15 years, from 2001 to 2015. To this end, linear regression analyses were performed using historical data series. The cultivated area and orange productivity showed a negative and positive linear relationship, respectively, while production did not show a clear trend. The increase in productivity contributed to preventing production from decreasing at the same rate as the harvested area. Orange production decreased by only 9.2%, while the area decreased by 29% and productivity increased by 27%.The reduction in cultivated area is related to low profitability coupled with increased production costs, mainly due to higher expenses for labor and phytosanitary management, which led many producers to seek alternatives, such as sugarcane. The area cultivated with sugarcane in the State of São Paulo showed a positive linear relationship and a growth of 115%. The increase in productivity is related to improvements in orchard establishment and management and an increase in planting density. The future outlook is favorable due to expectations of improved prices and international demand, but the citrus agribusiness requires planned technical and economic strategies to be competitive.