Dinamika Daya Saing Cerutu Indonesia Di Pasar Internasional

Tobacco is an essential commodity in Indonesia, with cigars being one of the most widely consumed processed tobacco products. In 2022, the value and quantity of Indonesian cigar exports declined. Although Indonesia is a global cigar exporter, it faces competition from other exporting countries. This study aims to analyse the competitiveness of Indonesian cigars and how their position as a world exporter compares to competitor countries. The countries observed as competitors include the Dominican Republic, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, and Hungary. The analysis covers 12 years of time series data, HS code 240210. To achieve the research objectives, the study uses the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) methods to assess Indonesia’s comparative competitiveness. It also applies the Export Product Dynamics (EPD) method to evaluate Indonesia’s competitive position in the global market. The results show that Indonesian cigar exports have a comparative advantage with an overall increasing competitiveness trend. However, competitiveness has declined in the last two years. Indonesian cigar competitiveness has a moderate negative correlation with Belgium’s competitiveness and a strong correlation with Germany’s. Over time, Indonesia's cigar competitiveness shifted positions: it was in a retreat position in the first period, then became a falling star in the second. It improved to a rising star position in the third period but dropped again in the fourth period to a lost opportunity position.