2003 CAP reform: Impacts of various options on supply in French regions

Generally speaking, total aid decoupling, one of the possible options of the 2003 reform, leads to a decline in arable crops and an extensification in beef production; this extensification avoids rural decline. However, developments differ according to regions. Arable crops remain more stable in the already specialised regions and instead drop in the least favoured areas, particularly in mountains. Total decoupling is mainly unfavourable to suckler livestock in French central regions where there are at the same time extensification (when livestock is already extensive) and livestock reduction. BSP partial decoupling is not sufficient to reverse these trends, conversely to Suckler Cow Premium (SCP) recoupling. In more intensive regions, for example in the West, adaptation possibilities appear to be bigger, even in the case of total decoupling: beef cattle do not decline with the extensification which is conducted to the detriment of arable crops. So partial recoupling may lead to an increase in beef cattle. If the objective of the public authority is to maintain equilibrium in beef cattle distribution, keeping the coupled premium for suckler-cows may be justified.